突发公共卫生事件下城市基础设施系统韧性研究

杜明溪

摘 要

近年来，国内外突发公共卫生事件频发，对城市建设提出了更高的要求。城市基础设施系统是城市中保障居民生产与生活最基本的物理存在，是突发公共卫生事件发生时支持人类健康与福祉的生命线系统。因此，研究突发公共卫生事件下城市基础设施系统韧性及功能变化情况对于提升城市韧性具有重要意义。

本文旨在研究突发公共卫生事件下的城市关键基础设施系统失效过程，并提出相应的韧性提升建议与策略，为促进我国韧性城市的建设与发展做出微薄贡献。在此目标下，本文主要完成了以下工作：

（1）对突发公共卫生事件下城市基础设施系统韧性进行重要性评价。依据已有研究，选取突发公共卫生事件下18个影响城市韧性的基础设施系统因素，结合国内城市数据，运用关联规则挖掘与复杂网络方法，对突发公共卫生事件下城市基础设施系统进行重要性评价。研究表明，城市中水网、电网、移动通讯网络等基础设施系统均对突发公共卫生事件有一定影响，但医疗卫生基础设施系统与城市公共交通基础设施系统更为关键；

（2）探究了突发公共卫生事件下城市医疗卫生基础设施系统与城市公共交通基础设施系统失效过程。通过网络建模方法，结合传染病仓室模型，模拟突发公共卫生事件在城市中爆发时，激增的患者对城市医疗卫生基础设施系统与城市公共交通基础设施系统影响的动态过程，并以我国W市为例实现上述过程；

（3）提出突发公共卫生事件背景下提高城市基础设施系统韧性的建议与策略。本文从城市医疗卫生基础设施系统、公共交通基础设施系统与城市基础设施系统整体三个角度提出了突发公共卫生事件下城市基础设施系统韧性提升策略。

本文的研究结果为突发公共卫生事件下城市基础设施系统韧性提升提供了思路，为后疫情时代下提高城市应对突发公共卫生事件的能力提供了参考建议，有利于促进我国现代化城市的建设与发展。

关键词：突发公共卫生事件；城市基础设施系统；韧性；网络模型

Abstract

In recent years, public health emergencies have occurred frequently at home and abroad, which puts forward higher requirements for urban construction. The infrastructure system in a city is the basic subsystem to guarantee resicents’ daiy life, and it is also a lifeline system to support human health and well-being during public health emergencies. Therefore, it is of great signicifance to study the resilience and function change of infrastructure systems under public health emergencies and improve city resilience.

This thesis aims to study the failure process of critical infrastructure systems in city during public health emergencies, and proposes specific strategies to promote the construction of resilient cities in China. With this goal, this thesis mainly completes the following work:

(1) Evaluate the importance of urban infrastructure resilience in response to public health emergencies. Reffering to existing research, 18 infrastructure system factors that affect city resilience in public health emergencies is selected. Based on real data of Chinese cities, this thesis evaluates the importance of infrastructure systems in public health emergencies by using association rule mining and complex network methods. This study shows that water network, power grid, mobile communication network and other infrastructure systems play important role in reponse to public health emergencies. However, the medical and health infrastructure system and the urban public transportation infrastructure system are the most critical infrastructure systems in prevention and management of public health emergencies.

(2) Explore the failure process of medical and health as well as public transportation infrastructure systems in cities during public health emergencies. When public health emergencies break out in a city, the surge of patients has an impact on the medical and health infrastructure system and the public transportation infrastructure system. This thesis simulates this dynamic process through the method of establishing network models combined with infectious diseases compartment models. And taking City W as an example to realize the above process.

(3) Propose specific suggestions and strategies to improve the resilience of infrastructure systems in response to public health emergencies. This thesis proposes resilience improvement strategies under public health emergencies from medical and health infrastructure systems, public transport infrastructure systems and the overall infrastructure system.

The results of this thesis provide ideas of infrastructure construction for resilient cities under public health emergencies, and put forward reference suggestions for improving resilience in the post-epidemic era, which is conducive to promoting the construction and development of resilient cities in China.

Key words: Public health emergencies, Urban infrastructure systems, Resilience, Network model