建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业，具有宏观经济相关性和政策敏感性，其需求受经济发展的影响。在当下我国经济进入新常态、建筑业增速放缓的背景下，深入研究建筑业与国民经济的关联，对于促进建筑业的健康可持续发展具有重要意义。

本文首先对 41 国数据进行横截面分析以探寻建筑业与经济发展间的规律；在此基础上利用纵向时间序列分析捕捉中国建筑业的区域发展特征。其次采用格兰杰因果检验分析改革开放以来建筑业与国民经济的相互影响，同时引入货币政策变量以深入理解两者间的关系。进一步构建结构向量自回归模型研究三者在同一框架下的相互作用。最后考虑时间维度的影响，引入含时变参数的结构向量自回归模型刻画三者间关系的动态演进过程。
研究主要获得三点结论。第一，建筑业增加值占 GDP 比重随经济发展呈两阶段倒 U 形规律；我国建筑业于 2016 年进入相对下降期，顶点处建筑业经济贡献度为5.12%，相对偏低。第二，改革开放以来国民经济的增长显著带动了建筑业发展，这种影响具有即时性和可持续性。 扩张性货币政策对建筑业的直接激励效果则仅在长期内显现，存在滞后； 建筑业对经济增长的推动作用亦是如此。第三，货币供应量的增加可以刺激整体经济增长从而对建筑业产生间接的短期正向激励，然而其长期影响均随着时间推移而减弱。通过投资建筑业刺激经济增长的方法不可持续，其长期效应甚至转为负值。国民经济对建筑业的长期影响亦随时间的推移而降低，但是这种变化相对缓慢且影响始终为正； 这符合目前建筑业相对下行的趋势，同时说明建筑业仍存在一定的市场需求。 最后基于研究结果提出了建筑业发展相关的政策建议。

关键词：建筑业经济； 国民经济； 货币政策； 格兰杰因果； TVP-SVAR-SV

As a pillar industry of the national economy, the construction industry has macroeconomic relevance and policy sensitivity. Its demand is influenced by economic development. Under the background that China's economy has entered the New Normal and the construction industry is also slowing down, a comprehensive study of the correlation between the construction industry and the national economy is of great significance for promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the construction industry.
This article first conducts a cross-sectional analysis of data from multiple countries to explore the relationship between the construction industry and economic development. On this basis, longitudinal time series analysis is used to capture the regional development characteristics of China's construction industry. Secondly, Granger causality test is used to analyze the mutual influence between the construction industry and the national economy since the reform and opening up, while introducing monetary policy variables to deeply understand the relationship between the two. Further a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed to study the interactions among the three within the same framework. Finally, considering the influence of time dimension, an SVAR model with time-varying parameters is introduced to depict the dynamic evolution process of the relationship between the three.
The research mainly yielded three findings. Firstly, the proportion of added value of the construction industry to GDP follows a two-stage inverted U-shaped pattern with economic development. China's construction industry entered a relatively declining period in 2016, with a relatively low economic contribution of 5.12% at its peak. Secondly, since the reform and opening up, the growth of the national economy has significantly driven the development of the construction industry, which has an immediate and sustainable impact. The driving effect of the construction industry on economic growth is only evident in the long term, with a lag. The incentive effect of expansionary monetary policy on the construction industry is also the same. Thirdly, an increase in the money supply can stimulate overall economic growth and generate indirect short-term positive incentives for the construction industry, but its long-term impact weakens over time. The method of stimulating economic growth through investment in the construction industry is not sustainable, and its long-term effects may even turn negative. The long-term impact of the national economy on the construction industry also decreases over time, but this change is relatively slow and the impact is always positive. This is in line with the current trend of relative decline in the construction industry, and also indicates that there is still a certain market demand in the construction industry. Finally, based on the research results, policy recommendations related to the development of the construction industry were proposed.