摘 要

本论文通过综述国内外住房保障研究的最新成果，在借鉴部分国家和地区在住房保障政策与运行机制方面的成功经验基础上，结合广州市保障住房建设与管理的具体实践，构建住房保障的理论框架，建立分析与预测模型，同时对其进行实证应用研究，从理论和实践两方面为政府住房保障体系的建立和政策的完善提供科学的决策依据。

首先，研究了住房保障的理论机制并对国内外住房保障制度进行了比较分析。在归纳国内外学者研究成果的基础上，确定本文的研究理论基础；同时，借鉴国内外相关城市的住房保障先进经验，得到了对住房保障制度设计的启示，提出了广州市住房保障制度设计理念。

其次，对广州市城市低收入住房困难家庭住房需求特征进行了分析。以广州市城市低收入住房困难家庭住房状况调查为本论文的实证研究基础，采用聚类、对应、相关以及回归等数据分析方法，深层次挖掘各变量的相关性及其内在逻辑关系，不仅对广州市城市低收入住房困难家庭住房状况与需求特征获得了清晰的认识，而且分析了重病、残疾等家庭的特殊需求，对于未来保障性住房的政策设计提供了重要依据。

第三，对广州市保障性住房需求增量与供应量进行了测算与设计。选用广州市辖十区城镇居民最低生活保障人数作为自变量，利用组合预测模型，对未来五年广州市城市低收入住房困难家庭的新增数量进行预测。在预测过程中，单一模型的选择包括：幂函数回归分析（Power 模型）、线性回归分析（Linear Regression 模型）、对数回归分析（Logarithmic Regression 模型）以及相关灰色预测模型。通过冗余检验后，构建组合预测模型，有效改善了模型的拟合能力，提高了预测精度。同时，结合本次住房调查中所获得的低收入住房困难家庭的住房保障意愿，提出了广州市未来五年各类住房保障供应量的设计方案。

第四，构建了广州市住房保障体系。通过深入的调查与实证研究发现，广州市的住房保障建设中存在的问题，既有制度设计上的原因，也有实践中的不足。为此，在针对相关问题进行深度剖析的基础上，从住房保障管理机制、住房保障供应体系、保障性住房的规划与建设、住房保障的后续服务与管理、保障性住房的金融支持以及对特殊人群的住房保障等方面，对构建完善的广州市住房保障体系提出了相关的政策建议。

最后，对广州市保障性住房政策实施效果进行了分析与评价。主要包括对广州市两次发售的经济适用房弃购原因分析以及广州市廉租住房住户违规原因分析。通过对相关政策实施后的社会反响与表现的系列追踪调查，对政策的执行情况进行了相关的后续研究与实施效果评价，同时，对保障性住房政策的未来发展提出了展望。

关键词：住房保障体系；低收入家庭；保障性住房；需求分析；组合预测

Abstract

This dissertation summarizes the latestresearches made on housing security home and abroad, and use for reference thesuccessful experiences of housing security policies and the system operation insome countries and regions to build, within the actual context of Guangzhou’ssecurity housing construction and management, a theoretical framework ofhousing security, and a model for analysis and forecasting that is applied toempirical research. In this way, the dissertation provides theoretically andpractically a scientific foundation on which the government can make decisionson the building of housing security system and the improvement of policies.

Firstly, the dissertation studies thetheoretical mechanism of housing security and borrows ideas from practices homeand abroad. The theoretical base of this dissertation is decided after thesummary of research results achieved by Chinese and foreign scholars. At themeantime, the dissertation studies and compares the experiences of somecountries and cities in the field of housing security, so as to provide areference framework for solving housing problems of urban low-income familiesthat have housing problem.

Secondly, the dissertation analyzes thehousing demand characteristics of low-income families that have housingproblem. An investigation of the housing status of such people is made as thefoundation of the dissertation’s empirical research. Through deep data mining,we get a clear picture of the housing status and demand characteristics of low-incomeurban people who have difficulty affording a house, as well as special demandsof families that have in them seriously ill or crippled persons, which will bean important basis on which future social security housing policies may bedevised.

Thirdly, the dissertation makes forecastfor the supply of social security housing of Guangzhou through combinedforcasting modle. Single model selecting include Power Model, Linear RegressionModel, Logarithmic Regression Model, and forecasting Models related to GreyTheory. Because the degree of fitting of the combined model used in the estimationof minimum living security number is the highest, the result achieved by this methodis adopted as the estimated increase of low-income families that havedifficulty affording a house.

Fourthly, the dissertation buildsGuangzhou’s housing security system. After in-depth analysis of relevantissues, this dissertation offers advices on how to improve the housing securitysystem of Guangzhou in such respects as management mechanism of housing security,supply system of affordable housing, planning and construction of socialsecurity housing, after service and management of affordable housing, financialsupport for social security housing, and affordable housing for special groups.

The last part of the dissertation evaluatesthe effect of Guangzhou’s social security houing policy in implementation. Theevaluation mainly includes investigation of the reasons why people abandonedtheir rights to purchase affordable housing in the last two batches offered inGuangzhou and investigation of the reasons of why residents of low-rent houseviolated relevant regulations. On the basis of series of investigation on the socialresponse and effect of the implementation of relevant policies, thedissertation conducts follow-up research on the execution of policies andevaluation of such implementation, and offers forecast of the futuredevelopment of housing security policies.

Key words: Housing security system;Low-income families; Security housing; Demand analysis; Combined forecast