地铁车站工程施工方案安全评审研究

宫培松

摘要

地铁车站建设是高风险工程，尽管安全管理制度非常严格，但安全事故仍然时有发生。地铁车站施工方案安全评审工作落实效果较差，难以对后期施工安全管理进行更加有效的决策支持是引发安全事故的其中一个重要因素。施工方案安全评审工作质量较差的原因在于：从实际工作的角度，参与地铁车站施工方案安全评审的专家需要进行大量的致险因素取值组合状况的分析，才能对安全风险做出评价。但致险因素取值组合的数量是巨大的，因此地铁车站安全评审知识是巨量的。巨量的知识人脑难以完全掌握，使得人工评审难以保证完全准确；安全评审知识是巨量的，使得风险分析工作量过大，人工评审效率低；由于评审时间有限，工作效率较低，也使得评审结果信息量不足（缺乏风险演化路径和时空信息），难以使基层人员理解领悟等。从理论的角度，地铁车站安全评审知识散布在相关文献、技术资料和专家头脑中，缺乏有效的机制使相关知识得到良好的维护，造成其很难被共享，形成知识孤岛，且更新也不及时；目前还没有任何一份文献全面总结了地铁车站施工安全风险及其相关致险因素，安全风险评价规则也缺乏统一的表达方式。以上这些原因都使得地铁车站施工方案安全评审工作存在困难，影响地铁车站施工安全管理的质量和效率。

构建安全评审多维数据库，以信息化手段完成对相关知识的有效管理是解决此问题的一种有效途径。本文研究开发地铁车站施工方案安全评审多维数据库及相关评审系统，用信息化手段实现对相关知识的有效管理，实现评审工作自动化，以期克服现实工作中存在的困难，提高地铁车站施工安全管理水平；同时在理论上，安全评审多维数据库的研究开发，为地铁车站施工方案安全评审知识建立了科学的数据组织架构、规范的数据标准、统一的规则表达方式和稳定的数据更新机制，提供了一种科学有效的手段管理相关知识，使得地铁车站施工方案安全评审知识能得到良好的维护、共享和及时更新，更好地为地铁车站施工安全管理服务。因此，本文的研究具有重要的理论意义及实践价值。

本文首先分析地铁车站施工安全风险分别与施工工法和致险因素之间的关系。根据安全风险与施工工法的关联，提出以施工方案中的工法信息快速识别风险的方法。研究致险因素的获取手段，提出了以客观信息为主要来源获取安全风险与致险因素关联的方法。对安全风险与施工工法、安全风险与致险因素的关联做出了规范的表达，为安全评审多维数据库提供了部分规范的信息需求。

然后，讨论了单个安全风险评审规则的构建方法，完成评审规则构建，为安全评审多维数据库做好部分数据准备。以决策表的形式建立单个安全风险的全部评审知识，通过粗糙集进行属性约简和属性值约简，获取评审规则；针对致险因素较多的安全风险，利用模糊粗糙集方法，将决策表中的属性值模糊化，构建五个决策属性的模糊集，减少了评审规则数量。评审规则将安全评审知识进行了规范表达，有利于地铁车站施工方案安全评审知识的有效管理和重复利用，是安全评审多维数据库的基础。

第三，进行了安全风险事件的耦合关系分析。深入整理了地铁车站施工安全风险事件之间的耦合关系，根据其在整个安全风险系统中发挥的不同作用，提出了三个安全风险事件类别，即基本事件、征兆事件和损失事件，并以此为基础从系统的视角研究了风险事件的产生、发展和爆发机理。为在安全评审多维数据库中定义安全风险事件之间的关系提供了明确的信息需求。

第四，研究了基于风险耦合的安全风险评价方法。在充分考虑风险事件之间耦合关系的基础上，基于系统动力学原理，依次研究了基本事件评价模型、多风险事件评价模型和多施工段多风险事件评价模型，为实现从项目整体层面进行风险自动评价提供了理论计算模型。

第五，依据以上研究成果，构建了地铁施工方案安全评审多维数据库。设计了多维数据库的内部结构及各子库；研究了基于安全评审多维数据库的自动评审系统，以实现评审工作自动化；进行了安全评审结果表达形式开发，以“一图三表”的形式归纳整理评审结果中的最重要信息，该表达形式用于为现场一线管理和作业人员展示评审结果，使得评审结果能够“落地”，真正帮助施工一线的安全管理工作提高质量和效率，最大限度地实现评审结果的价值。

最后，以一个具体地铁车站施工项目为对象，基于安全评审多维数据库和相应的评价系统完成了该项目施工方案的安全评审。依据安全评审多维数据库提供的基本事件评审规则和各事件之间的耦合关系信息建立了多风险评价模型，评价结果描述了各安全风险在全施工期的演变过程，实现了具备时空信息的多风险评价。经过与专家评审结果的比较，验证了安全评审多维数据库能够有效管理相关评审知识，评审系统能够提高评审工作的质量和效率，克服目前评审工作存在的困难。

本文进行了地铁车站工程施工方案安全评审研究。先后开发了依据工法信息的风险识别技术、基于模糊粗糙集的评审规则构建技术和基于系统动力学的多风险评价技术，研究了安全评审多维数据库和相应的评审系统。本文的研究提供了一种有效方法管理巨量的地铁车站施工方案安全评审知识；丰富了地铁施工安全风险评价的理论方法；有助于实现地铁车站施工方案安全评审自动化，提高该项工作的质量和效率，从而保障地铁施工安全。

关键词：地铁车站施工方案施工安全风险评价模糊粗糙集数据挖掘系统动力学

Abstract

The construction of the metro station has highrisk, although the safety management is very strict, accidents still happenoccasionally. The poor practicable effect of safety assessment of metro stationconstruction plans, and the assessment results’ difficultly making moreeffective decision support for the late safety construction management is oneof the important factors. The reason of low quality of construction planssafety assessment is that: from the perspective of the practical work, expertsparticipate in the metro station construction schemes safety assessment need todo a lot of analysis on the conditions of combination of the risk factorsvalues, can make assessment of the safety risk. But the quantity of thecombination of risk factor values is huge, and then the knowledge of metrostation safety assessment is huge. A huge amount of knowledge is difficult tobe fully grasped by the human brain, and makes artificial assessment difficultto guarantee the completely accuracy; the knowledge of safety assessment ishuge, which makes risk analysis workload too large, and the low efficiency ofmanual assessment; due to the time limiting and the low work efficiency,assessment results have insufficient information (lack of risk evolution pathsand space-time information) and can hardly be understood and comprehended bythe grass-roots staff. From the perspective of theory, the metro station safetyassessment knowledge is spread in the related literature, technical files andthe mind of experts, and it is lack of effective mechanism to well maintain theknowledge. So the knowledge is hard to share and update in time. There has nota literature yet which has a comprehensive summary of the metro stationconstruction safety risk and the related risk factors, and safety riskassessment rules lack a unified expression also. All these reasons above makethe safety assessment of metro station construction plans exist difficulties,and affect the quality and efficiency of metro station construction safetymanagement.

To build safety assessment multidimensionaldatabase, and use information means to complete the effective management of theknowledge is an effective way to solve this problem. The thesis research anddevelop the safety assessment multidimensional database of metro stationconstruction plans and the related assessment system, which use theinformatization means to achieve the effective management of the relatedknowledge, to realize the automatic assessment, and expect overcoming thedifficulties exist in the practical work, and improving the safety managementlevel of metro station construction. In theory, at the same time, the researchand development of safety assessment multidimensional database establish safetyscientific data structure, the normative data standard, unified expression ofrules and stable data update mechanism for the safety assessment knowledge ofmetro station construction plans, provide a scientific and effective means tomanage the relevant knowledge, to make the safety assessment knowledge of metrostation construction plans get good maintenance, share and updated in time,which help the metro station construction safety management better. Therefore,the research of this thesis has important theoretical significance andpractical value.

First of all, this thesis analyzes therelationship between metro station construction safety risks respectively andthe construction methods and the risk control factors. According to therelevance between the safety risks and construction methods, this thesis putsforward the method of quick risk identification by the construction methodinformation. This thesis researches the acquire methods of risk factors, andputs forward the method of acquiring the relevance of safe risks and riskfactors by the way of taking the objective information as the main source. Thisthesis makes normative expression of the relevance between safety risks andconstruction methods, safety risks and risk factors, and provides a part of thenormative needs of information for safety assessment multidimensional database.

Then, this thesis discusses the extraction methodof assessment rules for a single safety risk, and completes the building ofassessment rules, which make the preparation of part data for the safetyassessment multidimensional database. This thesis establishes all assessmentknowledge of a single safety risk in the form of decision table. The attributeand attribute value are reduced by the method of rough set, and then theassessment rules are extracted and purified. For safety risks which have muchmore risk factors, this thesis makes the attribute values in the decision tablefuzzy, built fuzzy sets of five decision attributes by the method of fuzzyrough set technology, and reduces the number of assessment rules. Theassessment rules provide normative expression for the safety assessmentknowledge, and the effective management and reuse of the safety assessmentknowledge of metro station construction plans. They are the foundation of thesafety assessment multidimensional database.

Thirdly, this thesis analyzes the couplingrelationship between safety risk events. This thesis further sorts out thecoupling relations between the metro station construction safety risk events,and puts forward three categories of safety risk event, namely basic events,omen events and loss events, according to the different roles of safety eventsplaying in the whole safety risks system. From the angle of system, this thesisresearches the emergence, development and outbreak mechanism of risk events onthe basis of the three categories of safety risk event. All these researchprovides the specific information needs for defined relationships between thesafety risk events in the safety assessment multidimensional database.

Fourth, this thesis studies the safety riskassessment method based on risk coupling. On the basis of fully considering thecoupling relationship between risk events, the basic event assessment model,the multi-risk event assessment model and the assessment model ofmulti-construction sections with multi-risk events are successively studiesbased on system dynamics principle. The research above provides the theoreticalcalculation model for automatic risk assessment from the perspective of thewhole project.

Fifth, on the basis of above research results,this thesis establishes the safety assessment multidimensional database ofmetro station construction plans. This thesis designs the internal structureand each sub-library of the multidimensional database, researches the automaticassessment system based on the safety assessment multidimensional database, inorder to realize the automatic assessment work, and then develops theexpression form of the safety assessment results. The expression form isdisplayed in the form of ‘one figure and three tables’ to induct and reorganizethe most important information of the assessment results. The expression formis used for the displaying of assessment results for the front-line managersand the operational staff. The ‘one figure and three tables’ makes theassessment results to be used in practice, can really help to improve thequality and efficiency of safety management of front-line construction, andmaximize the realization of the value of assessment results.

Finally, this thesis completes the safetyassessment of a specific metro station construction project based on safetyassessment multidimensional database and the corresponding assessment system.The assessment system establishes multi-risk assessment model based on thebasic event assessment rules and the coupling relationship information betweenthe events provided by safety assessment multidimensional database, and theassessment results described the evolution of the safety risks in the wholeconstruction process, realizes multi-risk assessment with time-space information.After compared with the expert’s assessment results, it is verified that thesafety assessment multidimensional database could effective manage relevantassessment knowledge, and the assessment system could improve the quality andefficiency of assessment, and overcome the difficulty in current assessmentwork.

This thesis researches the safety assessment ofmetro station construction plans. It successively develops the riskidentification technology based on construction method information, theassessment rules extraction technology based on the fuzzy rough set and themulti-risk assessment technology based on system dynamics, and researchessafety assessment multidimensional database and the corresponding assessmentsystem. The research of this thesis provides an effective method to manage ahuge amount of safety assessment knowledge of metro station construction plans,enriches the theoretical method of the safety risk assessment of metroconstruction, helps to realize the automatic safety assessment, and improvesthe quality and efficiency of the safety assessment of metro stationconstruction plans, and then to ensure the safety of metro construction.

Key word: metro station; construction plan; constructionsafety; risk assessment; fuzzy rough set; data mining; system dynamics