摘 要

   从世界范围来看，一个国家中企业的兴衰很大程度上影响了国家的经济实力。企业的成败一直以来都是企业研究的核心问题。房地产业作为我国国民经济中的支柱产业，对其失败现象进行研究意义尤为重大。首先，房地产开发企业失败研究是房地产开发业进行企业管理的需要；其次，研究失败是获得成功的有效途径；最后，对企业失败的研究是进行企业失败预警的理论基础。

   本文的研究中明确了房地产开发企业失败的概念，确定了其研究内容和方法，通过分析影响我国房地产开发企业失败的各种宏观和微观因素，提出了房地产开发企业的战略管理对策，并建立起若干适应我国房地产开发企业的失败预测模型。本文中把定性分析方法和定量分析方法结合了起来。定性分析方法主要是单变量分析，定量分析方法有多变量模型和神经网络模型。各模型的样本采用的是以房地产开发为主营业务的我国房地产上市公司，变量采用了上述各公司的财务指标和比率。经检验，最终得到的三个模型都具备了较好的判别预测能力，可以应用于房地产开发企业失败预测的实践中。

   随着统计技术的改进和理论研究的进一步发展，当前社会科学研究的一些热点方法也将逐渐被引入房地产开发企业失败的研究中并加以普及，必将使我国的房地产开发企业失败研究进入一个新的理论高度。

关键词：房地产开发    企业失败    战略管理    单变量分析    多变量模型   神经网络模型

Abstract

       From a global perspective, the prosperity and decline of enterprises in a country hasinfluenced  the  national  economic  potentiality  remarkably.  The  success  or  failure  ofenterprises has always been the mail concern of enterprise studies. The real estate industryserves as the pillar industry in our national economy, so it is significant to study the failurephenomenon of real estate corporations. Firstly, it is to the need of real estate corporationsfor carrying through corporate management. Secondly, studying failure is an effective wayto obtaining success. Finally, the research of corporate failure is the theory foundation for corporate failure early warning.  

   This  thesis  tries  to  define  the  conceptions  of  real  estate  corporate  failure  anddetermine  its  contents  and  methods.  By  analyzing  each  macroscopic  and  microscopicfactor  that  affects  real  estate  corporate  failure  in our  country,  the  thesis  proposed  somestrategic management countermeasures for real estate corporations, and established somefailure  forecasting  models  that  adapt  to  real  estate  corporations  in  China.  In  this  thesis,qualitative analysis methods and quantitative analysis methods are unified for the research.Single variable analysis is the mainly used qualitative analysis method in this thesis, whilemultivariable  model  and  neural  network  model  used  as  the  main  quantitative  analysismethods. Listed companies, whose businesses are primarily in real estate, have been usedas  samples  forthese  three  models,  with  their  financial  indexes  and  ratios  as  variables.Having  been  adjusted,  it  has  verified  that  these  three  models  work  well  not  only  indistinguishing between fail corporations and healthy ones, but also in forecasting failure. Then,  the  adjusted  models  can  be  applied  in  practice  while  forecasting  real  estate corporate failure in China.

   With  the  improvement  of  statistical  technology  and  further  development  of  theoryresearch,  more  and  more  popular  methods  that  are  applied  in  social  sciences  research  atpresent will be introduced into the research of realestate corporate failure and widely used,which will certainly make great progress to real estate corporate failure researchinChina.

   Keywords: Real Estate     Corporate Failure     Strategic Management   Single Variable Analysis     Multivariable Model    Neural Network Model