摘 要

我国地铁施工安全事故频发，造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。如何根据我国地铁施工安全管理特点，对影响地铁施工安全的多种因素进行定量与定性相结合的系统研究，是一个极其重要的问题。本文根据我国地铁施工安全管理特点，对影响地铁施工安全的多种因素进行定量与定性相结合的系统研究，建立施工现场安全评估模型，对地铁施工安全事故进行预测和诊断，为地铁施工安全管理提供指导。

论文首先阐述并对比分析多米诺骨牌理论、人-机-环境系统理论、轨迹交叉理论和能量意外释放理论四种事故致因理论，在此基础上提出了基于孕险环境、致险因子和承载体的地铁施工事故发生机理；从人、机、环境、材料和管理五个角度分析和总结某地铁施工安全事故危险源因素；介绍和分析传统风险事故成因分析方法(ARCTM)思想和流程，根据地铁施工事故特点，提出改进的风险事故成因分析方法，构建基于改进 ARCTM 的地铁施工安全事故根源追踪方法。分析了事故树法、层次分析法、核查表法、模糊分析法等传统定性和定量安全评价方法的特点及其应用；基于地铁施工安全事故的特性，引入贝叶斯网络概率安全评价理论，研究基于贝叶斯网络的静态系统概率安全评估方法，尝试将事故树直接转化为贝叶斯网络，建立基于盾构隧道渗漏水事故评价模型，利用模型分析评估地铁施工安全事故发生概率、基本事件重要度，以指导地铁施工安全管理。

关键词：地铁施工    事故成因分析   事故评价   贝叶斯网络    概率安全评估

Abstract

   Metro  construction  safety  accidents  happen  frequently,  which  causes  seriouscasualties  and  property  losses.  It  is  an  extremely  important  issue  that  how  to  make  asystemic  study  of  various  factors  which  affect  the  safety  of  subway  construction.According  to  the  characteristics  of  safety  management  of  subway  construction  in  ourcountry, the thesis makes a systemic study of various factors which affect the safety ofmetro construction, and establishesa safety assessment model for metro construction tomake  prognosis  and  diagnosis  of  safety  misadventure,  and  provide guidance  for  safety management of subway construction.

   The  thesis  exposes  and  analyses  four  types  of  accident  causes  theory,  such  as domino theory, manmachineenvironment system theory, track across theory and energyrelease  theory,  and  introduces  metro  construction  accidents occurrences  mechanism  on the basis of pregnancy risk environment, risk factors and bearing body; then, it analyses and  summarizes  the  hazard  factors  of  certain  metro  construction  safety  accidents  fromfive  perspectives,  including  human,  machine,  environment,  materials  and  management.The study introduces the idea and analysis processes of Accident Roots Causes TracingMethod(ARCTM), and modified the method to track the roots of metro safety accidents.What’s more,the study explores evaluation methods which are suitable for characteristicsof  domestic  metro  safety  accidents.  It  analyses  the  features  and  application  of  severaltraditional  qualitative  and  quantitative  analysis  methods,  such  as  Fault  Tree  Method、Analytic  Hierarchy  Process、Checklist  Method,  and  Fuzzy  Analysis;  dividing  into qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, the study exposes the features oftraditional  evaluation  methods  of  construction  safety,  including  Fault  Tree  MethodAnalytic  Hierarchy  ProcessChecklist  Method,  and  Fuzzy  Analysis,  and  apply  thesemethods  to  analysis  metro  construction  accidents;  according  to  the  characteristics  of metro  construction  accidents,  it  introduces  safety  assessment  theory  of  Bayesianprobabilistic  networks,  builds  up  probabilistic  safety  assessment  of  the  static  systembased  on  Bayesian,  and  transfers  Fault  Tree  into  Bayesian  Network  directly,  and  buildevaluation model for water leakage accident of shield tunnel; through model diagnostics and  model  predictive,  the  study  compares  the  priori  and  posteriori  probability  of  basicevents and analysis the importance of basic events; at last, the empirical analysis showsits  merits  and  effectiveness,  which  can  guide  metro construction  safety  accidents management.

Keywords：Metro Construction     Accident Root Analysis     Accident Evaluation Bayesian Networks     Probabilistic Safety Assessment