摘 要

   近几年以来，随着全球经济一体化和政治、经济、社会与科技的发展，工程建设业面临的竞争压力不断增加。由于建设周期长，参与单位众多，技术工艺复杂以及地理分布广等特点，在工程建设项目建设过程中普遍存在着风险因素多、管理效率低下的问题。

   虽然现在国内外建设工程风险管理的理论研究已经具备相当高的水平，工程风险分析和评价的方法也很多，但是由于对这些风险分析技术的实际应用情况没有系统的进行归纳整理，因此在面对具体的工程风险时，往往会选择不恰当的分析技术对风险实施分析和评价。最终的结果是对工程项目的风险的认识和分析不够，增加了风险管理的难度，直接影响了工程建设的质量、进度和成本目标，损害了项目的效益。本文就是基于以上的现状展开研究的。                                                      

   首先阐述了风险和风险管理的有关理论知识，在国内外学者对风险研究的基础上，给出了风险新的定义，指出风险管理的目的和意义，并构建了新风险管理的程序。然后详细的介绍了现在广泛使用的 13 种风险分析技术，深入的分析并阐述了这些风险分析技术的优缺点以及适用条件，对这些技术进行了纵向的比较。以武汉长江江底盾构隧道施工工程为例，用事故树风险分析法对长江盾构隧道的渗漏水安全事故进行了分析，得出了长江盾构隧道渗漏水事故的基本事件的结构重要度大小排序，从而可以指导管理者注意结构重要度较大的基本事件的预防，并采取相应措施，提高工程施工的安全。用 R=P×C 风险定级法对长江盾构隧道的施工风险进行了分析，确定了长江隧道工程的风险因素的等级，将对风险因素抽象的认识变成定量的具体的认识，让风险管理的目标明确化，从而实现了合理、经济的风险管理。在此基础上，详细的阐述了如何根据实际情况选择风险分析工具，实现有效的风险管理。最后将知识管理引入风险管理中，建立了建筑企业内和企业之间的风险管理体系，以期用一种全新的风险管理模式实现最优化的风险管理。

关键词：风险    风险定级    风险管理    盾构隧道    知识管理

Abstract

   In  recent  years,  along  with  the  economy  globalization  and  the  emerging  political,economic  social  and  technological  developments,  the  construction  industry  hasencountered  increasing  competitive  pressure.  Due  to  the  long  construction  period,numerous involved parties, complicated techniques and geographical disperse, constructionprojects aregenerally  faced  with  the  problems  of  too  many  risk  factors  and  inefficientmanagement, which not only affect the quality, schedule and cost of construction projects, but also decrease the projects,benefit.

   Though the theoretical research of risk management of the domestic and internationalconstruction project has already possessed quite high level now, and there are a lot of themethods of project risk analysis and appraise, the practical application of those methods arenot  induced  systematically,  so  in  the  face  of  the  concrete  project  risk,  often  choose  theimpertinence analytical technology. The final result is the understanding and analysis to therisk  of  the  project  is  not  enough,  increases  the  degree  of  difficulty  of  risk  management,influences the quality, progress and cost goal of the engineering construction directly, anddamages  benefit  of  the  project.  The  paper`s  research  is  based  on the actuality  of  the actuality of the front.

   This text expatiate the relevant knowledge of the risk and risk management theoriesat first. On the base of the risk study of the home and overseas scholars, bring forward anew  definition  about  risk,  and  point  out  the  aim  and  meaning  of  risk  management,  andestablish  a  new  process  of  risk  management.  Then  the  text  detailedly  introduce  13  riskanalysis technologies which are applied now, deeply analyses and explains the pluses andminuses of different and suitable condition of these risk analysis technologies, and comparewith  these  technologies  each  other  fore  and  aft.  Construct  with  the  Wuhan  ChangjiangRiver  submarine  shield  tunnel  construction  project  as  example,  using  the  Fault TreeAnalysis  method,  analyze  the  safety  accident  of  the  leakage  of  the  Wuhan  Changjiangtunnel construction project, and obtain the compositor of the fabric significance of the basisaffair. Accordingly instruct the handler specially guard against the basis affair which havethe  further  fabric  significance,  adopt  relevant  measure,  and  advance  the  security  ofconstruction.  Using  the  method  of  R=P×C,  analyze  the  construction  risk  of  the  WuhanChangjiang Riversubmarine shield tunnel construction project, confirm the level of the riskfactors, and the understanding to the risk factorbecome quantificational from nonfigurativecognition.  Definitude  the  aim  of  risk  management,  accordingly  realize  the  logical  andeconomical  risk  management.  On  the  base,  detailedly  expatiates  how  to  choose  the  riskanalysis  tool  according  to  the  actual  conditions,  consequently  realize  effective  riskmanagement.  Finally  introduces  knowledge  management  in  risk  management,  sets  up  therisk  management  system  in  construction  enterprise  and  between enterprises,  expect  to realize the risk management that is optimized most with a kind of brand-new risk mode.

Keywords:   Risk    Level assessment of risks    Risk management    Shield tunnel   Knowledge Management