摘 要

   城市化进程的加快，带来了城市空间容量不足、城市交通拥挤的状况。为缓解交通压力，国内很多大城市相继投入巨资建设地铁。截止 2010 年，我国 17 个城市已有或在建地铁，预测到 2020 年，我国将有 30 个左右的城市建设地铁。随着地铁工程建设速度的加快，地铁施工安全事故也频繁发生。地铁施工安全风险预警指标体系研究是在目前城市地铁建设安全事故日益增长的严峻趋势下提出的。

   本文首先分析了地铁施工阶段面临的所有风险因素，对收集到的 2001-2010 年间发生的 58 个地铁施工安全事故进行分析，包括安全事故的城市分布规律分析、时间分布规律分析、事故类型分布规律分析、事故发生原因分析；接着基于安全事故致因层次讨论了地铁施工安全事故致因层次理论，并应用该理论对地铁施工坍塌事故进行分析。

   其二本文介绍了地铁施工安全预警管理的内容和过程，地铁施工安全预警管理的内容包括安全预警的发布、安全预警的响应和安全预警的解除，地铁施工安全预警管理的过程包括明确警义、寻找警源、分析警兆、预报警度和排除警患五个步骤。 在以上分析的基础上，本文从危险源的角度构建了地铁施工安全风险预警指标体系，给出了底层指标的度量方法，并从物元的共轭性出发，把预警指标划分为定性指标和定量指标，主观指标和客观指标，现状指标和趋势指标，前台指标和后台指标。

   本文最后以武汉体育南路站为例，详细的介绍了武汉体育南路站安全风险预警指标体系的构建过程，并对预警指标进行分类。

关键词：地铁施工   安全风险    预警   指标体系   指标分类  

Abstract

     The  acceleration  of  urbanization  has  brought  the  problem  of  lack  of  urban  spacecapacity and traffic condition.In order to alleviate traffic pressure, many domestic citiesinvested  hugely  in  subway  construction.  By  2010,  17  cities  have  or  being  constructedsubway;  as  predicted  by  2020,  about  30  cities  will  construct  subway.  As thesubwayengineering  construction  to  speed  up,  the  subway  construction  safety  accidents  occurfrequently. The study of subway construction safety risk earlywarning index system isproposed under the growing of urban subway construction safety accident.         This paper first analyzed all risk factors the subway construction stage faced, thenanalyzed  the  accidents’regularity  which  occurred  from  2001  to  2010,  including  safetyaccident  city  distribution  analysis,  time  distribution  analysis,  accident  type  distribution analysis, accident reason analysis. Then based on safety accident-causing hierarchy thesubway  construction  safety  accidentcausing  theory  was  discussed,  and  the  theoryanalyzed was applied to the subway construction collapse.  

   Secondly  the  paper  introduced  the  subway  construction  safety  prewarningmanagement  method  and  process.  The  subway  construction  safety  prewarningmanagement  process  includes  the  issue  of  safety  prewarning,  the  response  of  safetyprewarning  and  the  removal  of  safety  prewarnin.  The  subway  construction  safetyprewarning management procesincludes clarifying warning meanings, finding warningsources,  analyzing  warning  signs,  forecasting  warning  degrees and  eliminating pre-warning.  

   Based  on  the  above,  this  paper  constructed  subway  construction  safety  riskearlywarning index system from the angle of hazard and gave the measurement methodof the bottom index, and from the matterelement conjugate sex, the earlywarning indexwas  classified  into  the  qualitative  and  quantitative  index,  the  subjective  and  objectiveindex, the present and trend index, the receptionist and background index.  

   In the end the paper took Wuhan sports south road station as an example, detailedintroduced the process of the constructionand classification of Wuhan south road station safety risk early-warning index system.

Keyword: Subway construction    Safety risk    Early warning   Index classification    Index system