摘 要

建设工程变更给工程项目进展带来了不稳定因素，是造成建设成本上升、工期拖延、质量缺陷、效率降低的重要原因之一。目前，对建设工程变更的研究主要集中在工程变更的处理流程制度上，缺乏对建设工程变更发生的原理剖析：对工程变更发生的原因只停留在归纳出来的表面事件上，缺乏一个统一的框架以结构化地解释变更发生的微观原理。缺乏深层次的原理分析导致变更发生传播时不能识别其中影响巨大的重点构件对象，一视同仁地用同一种变更管理办法对待所有对象，使得变更控制没有针对性，管理效果差。

本文文献综述发现，变更传播的研究还停留在各类型工业产品设计、制造过程中，目前对建设工程产品的变更传播这一课题的研究尚处于空白地带。然而，变更传播并非其他工业产品所特有的情况，建设工程产品在设计、施工的过程中都会有变更传播的表现，变更传播更会加深原始变更的影响，扩大影响范围，给变更控制管理带来巨大的威胁。鉴于此现状，本文通过梳理大量的相关文献，提取工业制造业领域中对变更传播研究的已有成果，并结合建设工程项目的特点对该成果作适应性改造。

本文的贡献主要在于以下几个方面：1.从微观上（即构件层面上）分析了建设工程变更发生以及变更传播的条件，进一步推导出了变更传播的范围特点；2.结合工业产品变更的研究成果以及建设工程项目的特点，提出了建设工程变更传播的完整框架模型。该模型可以较为完善地表达设计图纸中变更情况，分别解释变更发生以及传播的原因（直接连接关系、设计约束关系、空间碰撞关系），从而进一步预测工程变更传播的路径、识别变更传播影响较大的关键对象以及评价整个项目的变更风险特性。

关键词：建设项目  变更传播原理剖析变更路径影响预测

Abstract

The construction projectchanges to the project progress is not stable, is caused by the rise inconstruction costs, delays in the construction period, quality defects, reducethe efficiency of one of the important reasons. At present, domestic andforeign scholars of construction project change research mainly concentrated inthe engineering change management system, lack of construction project changethe principle analysis: reasons for engineering change occurred only stay inthe inductive surface events, the lack of a unified framework for structured toexplain the change of microcosmic principle. Lack of deep principle analysisresulted in a change propagation occurs does not recognize the tremendousimpact on the key component object and treated with a change management approachto treat all objects, the change control not targeted, effective management ispoor.

This paper found thatthe change of the spread of research is still in the various types ofindustrial product design, manufacturing process, the current changes in the constructionof the project is still in a blank area. However, change propagation is notother industrial products unique, construction products in the design, theconstruction process will change propagation, change propagation will enhancemutual change the source and expand the scope of influence, brings the enormousthreat to the change control management. In view of this situation, this paper,by combing a large number of relevant literature, extraction of industrialmanufacturing industry in the field of change dissemination of existingresults, and combined with the characteristics of the construction project forthe transformation of the results.

The contribution of thispaper mainly lies in the following aspects: 1. From the micro (i.e. componentlevel) analysis of the construction engineering change and change propagationconditions and further deduce the change propagation range; 2. Combined withthe characteristics of industrial products to change the research achievementsof the construction project and proposed construction engineering changepropagation complete framework model. The model can be more perfect expressionin the design drawings of the change, respectively, the interpretation ofoccurred and the reasons for the change (skeleton relations, the designconstraints, spatial relation to collision), so as to further predict theengineering change propagation path, identification of change propagationinfluence the larger the key object and the evaluation of the project riskchange characteristics.

Keywords:Constructionproject; Change propagation; Principle analysis; Change path; Influence rangeanalysis