某健康产业园研发生产中心项目的投资风险管理研究

刘 念

摘  要

作为人才密集型和知识密集型产业，健康产业的发展非常适合产业园模式，有着高科技产业集群发展的优势。近些年在政府的规划和政策引导下，各地纷纷投资兴建各类健康产业园。这类大型健康产业园区建设周期长、资金投入大、收益慢、不确定因素多，而且园区面临的产业差异化定位、顶层规划设计、投融资、企业招商、人才资源等各方面问题都会影响项目的投资效益，因此有必要对这类项目的投资风险进行评估管理。

本文以某健康产业园研发生产中心项目为研究对象，首先介绍了国内外健康产业及风险管理方面的研究现状和论文主要内容，阐述了建设项目投资风险管理相关理论和研究方法；其次介绍某健康产业园研发生产中心项目概况和投资环境并进行项目的优劣势分析，为项目投资风险的评估提供依据；在此基础上，运用核对表法、德尔菲法等结合本项目具体情况，识别出投资风险因素清单并建立评价指标体系；然后运用层次分析法确定各因素的权重，再进行模糊综合评价，由此判断确定了项目的投资风险等级并识别出关键风险；最后结合项目环境和实际情况，提出投资风险的应对措施。

本论文的研究从研发中心项目管理的实际出发，通过对项目投资风险的识别、度量、评价、控制，以期为投资者进行项目投资决策和投资风险控制时提供相应的技术支持。同时有望为类似健康医疗类产业园区的投资建设提供一定的参考。

关键词：健康产业园；研发中心；风险管理；投资风险；模糊评价

Abstract

As a talent-intensive and knowledge-intensive industry, the development of the health industry is very suitable for the industrial park model which has the advantage in development of industrial clusters. In recent years,various regions have invested in the construction of various health industrial parks under the guidance of local government planning and policies. This types of large-scale health industrial parks have characteristic of long construction period, large capital investment, slow returns and many uncertainties.In addition, the issues of industrial differentiation, top-level planning and design, investment and financing, business investment, and human resources will affect the investment efficiency of the project.So the risk of such projects must be evaluated and managed .

This article takes the Health Industrial Park R&D Center project as the research object. Firstly, the research status of health industry and risk management at home and abroad and the main content of the paper is discussed, and the related theories and research methods of construction project investment risk management is introduced. Secondly, the project overview and investment environment of the Health Industrial Park R&D Center is given a basic introduction and the project's advantages and disadvantages is analyzed to provide a basis for the investment risk assessment of the project. On this basis, it identifies the list of investment risk factors are identified and an evaluation index system is established based on the specific conditions of the project by Delphi method and check list technique; then AHP is used to determine the weight of each factor, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the project investment risk level and identify key risks. Finally, combined with the project environment and actual situation, countermeasures for investment risks are provided.

The research of this thesis is based on the actual project management of the R&D Center,which provides corresponding technical supports for investors to make project investment decisions and control investment risks, through the identification, measurement, evaluation, and control of the project investment risk. At the same time, it is expected to provide a certain reference for the investment and construction of similar health or medical industry parks.

Key Words: Health Industrial Park；the R&D Center；Risk Management；Investment Risk；Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation