湖北省智能建造产业生态系统演化的动力学分析

李云婷

摘 要

建筑业是湖北省重要支柱产业，有力支撑了湖北省社会经济的健康发展。智能建造是建筑业转型升级的必然趋势，是实现高质量发展的必由之路。当前，湖北省已经形成了上下联动的政策体系推动智能建造产业发展，在设计施工领域已经形成了一定的产业规模，但也面临产业发展不平衡、结构不合理等困境，亟需优化发展路径。研究智能建造相关文献，发现研究内容多为具体应用场景，尚未形成对智能建造产业的系统认识，对产业发展的指导作用较弱。所以有必要从产业生态角度把握系统内部要素和结构，研究系统内部的相互作用关系，凝练影响产业发展和演化的关键要素，并通过仿真模拟研究优化路径。

本文以湖北省智能建造产业为研究对象，首先基于对智能建造和产业生态系统的理论分析，界定智能建造产业边界，建立智能建造产业生态系统，将系统划分为创新子系统、生产子系统、应用子系统和环境子系统，分析了子系统内部在种群层和群落层的相互作用关系。根据文献和政策文本得到4类23个系统内部的要素，定性分析了要素间直接二元因果关系得到内部结构和层级关系。基于系统动力学方法利用Vensim PLE软件建立模型，通过对模型的检验证明了模型具有较高的置信度，详细分析了基本仿真结果并划分了系统演化的阶段。通过单一变量控制仿真实验，得到技术基础、资源配置和成果应用是影响系统演化的关键变量；通过多变量组合情景仿真实验，得到在优化资源配置和提效成果应用是促进湖北省智能建造产业实现高速和高质量发展的关键。最后为湖北省智能建造产业提供了加大技术创新要素长期投入、优化资源配置和推动成果转化应用三方面的建议。

关键词： 智能建造；湖北省建筑业；产业发展；系统动力学；仿真模拟

Abstract

The construction industry is an important pillar industry in Hubei Province, which strongly supports the sustainable and healthy development of the economy. Intelligent construction is the key to the future development of the construction industry and will promote its high-quality development. At present, Hubei Province has formed a top-down policy system to promote the development of intelligent construction industry, and has reached a certain industrial scale in design and construction. However, it has also encountered the dilemma of unbalanced development and unreasonable structure, so it is urgent to optimize the development path. Through the research on the relevant literature of intelligent construction, it is found that the research mainly focuses on the specific application points. The division of intelligent construction industry is not clear, a systematic understanding has not been formed, and a clear development path has not been put forward. So, it is necessary to establish the ecological system model of intelligent construction industry in Hubei Province, study the internal structure and action mechanism, and obtain the key factors affecting the evolution of the industry.

This paper takes the intelligent construction industry in Hubei Province as the research object. Firstly, based on the theoretical analysis of intelligent construction and industrial ecosystem, this paper establishes the intelligent construction industrial ecosystem, divide the system into innovation subsystem, production subsystem, application subsystem and policy subsystem, and analyzes its internal interaction. 23 documents and 4 policy elements are obtained according to the literature. The internal structure and hierarchical relationship obtained from the binary relationship between elements are qualitatively analyzed. Based on the method of system dynamics, the model is established by using Venism PLE software. Through the test of the model, it is proved that the model has high confidence. The basic simulation results are analyzed in detail and the stages of system evolution are divided. Through the single variable control simulation experiment, it is obtained that the technical basis, resource allocation and application of achievements are the key variables affecting the system evolution; Through the multivariable combination scenario simulation experiment, the application of results in optimizing resource allocation and improving efficiency is the key to promote the high-speed and high-quality development of intelligent construction industry in Hubei Province. Finally, suggestions on policy promotion, achievement transformation, technological innovation and resource allocation are provided for the intelligent construction industry in Hubei Province.

Key words: Intelligent Construction, Construction Industry in Hubei Province, Industrial Development, System Dynamics, Simulation