城市水环境对流感流行趋势的影响研究

刘晓朵

摘 要

随着城市化进程的加快发展，人们在享受着城镇化建设带来的生活品质提高的同时，也承担着城市环境污染所带来的健康威胁。为了解决全球共同的健康问题，世界卫生组织在全球范围内发起了建设健康城市的号召。事实上，城市环境对人体健康有着十分重要的影响。尤其是在重大卫生事件情况下，城市环境显得尤其重要，引发了众多学者的关注。

目前，已有大量学者关注城市环境指标，如空气中的温度、湿度等对传染病流行趋势的影响。除了大气环境以外，另一个影响人体健康的非常重要的因素就是水环境。现有研究已表明，城市水环境对传染病的流行趋势有着十分重要的影响。在中国，流感属于重点的传染病监控对象，每年影响着超过50万人的健康。然而目前的研究仅证明了城市水环境对流感的流行趋势有显著相关关系，尚无定量的研究分析水环境指标对流感流行趋势的影响模型。为了更好地推动健康城市的建设与发展，本文基于统计学基本方法和机器学习SVM算法，分析水环境对流行性感冒流行趋势的影响。具体来说，首先通过统计学常用方法Spearman相关性分析来确定与流感患病人数相关关系更为显著的变量，然后结合支持向量机（SVM），提出构建水环境对流感流行趋势影响的预测模型。通过收集到的2011年-2018年间全国九个省市地表水监测数据与流感发病人群数据，进行水环境参数对流感的流行趋势的预测分析，通过对模型训练，得到90%的预测准确率。最后，基于该模型，本研究提出其实际应用的方案，通过对城市水环境的监测，预控传染病的流行趋势，降低重大卫生事件的影响，提高人们的健康水平，为建设健康城市提供依据。

关键词：水环境；流行性感冒；预测模型；统计学方法；支持向量机

Abstract

With the accelerated development of the urbanization, people are enjoying the improvement of the quality of life brought by urbanization, and they also bear the health threats caused by urban environmental pollution. In order to solve common global health problems, the World Health Organization has launched a call to build healthy cities worldwide. In fact, the urban environment has a very important impact on human health. Especially in the case of major health events, the urban environment is particularly important, which has aroused the attention of many scholars.

At present, a large number of scholars have paid attention to the impact of urban environmental indicators, such as the temperature and humidity in the air, on the epidemic trend of infectious diseases. In addition to the atmospheric environment, another very important factor affecting human health is the water environment. Existing research has shown that the urban water environment has a very important influence on the epidemic trend of infectious diseases. In China, influenza is a key surveillance target for infectious diseases, affecting the health of more than 500,000 people every year. However, the current research only proves that the urban water environment has a significant correlation with the influenza epidemic trend, and there is no quantitative research to analyze the impact model of the water environment indicators on the influenza epidemic trend. In order to better promote the development of healthy cities, this article analyzes the impact of the water environment on the trend of influenza based on basic statistical methods and machine learning SVM algorithms. Specifically, the Spearman correlation analysis, a commonly used statistical method, was used to determine variables with a more significant correlation with the number of influenza patients, and then combined with support vector machine (SVM), a prediction model for the impact of the water environment on influenza epidemic trends was proposed. Through the collected surface water monitoring data of nine provinces and cities in China and the data of influenza incidence population from 2011 to 2018, the prediction analysis of influenza environmental parameters on the epidemic trend of influenza was carried out. Through model training, 90% prediction accuracy was obtained. Finally, based on the model, this study proposes its practical application plan, through the monitoring of urban water environment, pre-control the epidemic trend of infectious diseases, reduce the impact of major health events, improve people's health, and provide a basis for building a healthy city .

Keywords: Water environment; Influenza; Prediction model; Statistical method; Support vector machine